Tropical Storm Bonnie weakens to tropical depression

Tropical Storm Bonnie weakens to tropical depression as it approaches Ga., Carolina coasts

Track forecast for Tropical Storm Bonnie. (National Hurricane Center)

8:28 a.m. Sunday update: Bonnie has weakened from a tropical storm into a tropical depression as it pushes toward the Georgia and Carolina coastlines, the Associated Press reported.

There’s never a good time for a tropical storm, even a weak one. But most would agree Memorial Day weekend is particularly bad timing, especially those along the South Carolina coast, where a tropical storm warning is in effect ahead of heavy rain, somewhat strong winds, and a possible 1- to 2-foot storm surge.

Bonnie, the season’s second named storm, achieved tropical storm status late this afternoon. It is currently centered in the Atlantic Ocean about 135 miles south-southeast of Charleston, S.C. Maximum sustained winds of 40 mph have increased modestly since yesterday. Slight strengthening is possible overnight before gradual weakening on Sunday.

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Bonnie Saturday evening. (NOAA)

The storm is forecast to make landfall near Charleston, S.C. Sunday morning or afternoon. Heavy rains have already begun falling near the coast and moved towards South Carolina’s interior.

Because this is a relatively weak tropical storm, rain rather than wind or storm surge is considered the greatest hazard. That said, sustained winds over 30 mph are like along the South Carolina coast tonight, with the National Hurricane Center showing a 40 to 50 percent chance of tropical storm force winds (sustained at 39 mph or higher).

The system’s circulation, along with occasional showers and thunderstorms, may linger for several days along the South Carolina-North Carolina coast, gradually weakening through midweek.

The rain is expected to be heaviest in South Carolina overnight, before spreading northward into North Carolina and Virginia Sunday. Generally the storm is forecast to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain near its core, with locally up to 5 inches.

Northern Virginia, the District, Maryland and Delaware get in on the rain late Sunday afternoon into Monday, with up to about 1 to 2 inches possible in many spots as tropical moisture surges northward far from the core of the system.

Rainfall forecast through 8 p.m. Monday night. (NWS)

D.C. area impacts

In the D.C. area, moisture streaming out ahead of the system brings a slight (20-30 percent) chance of showers Sunday afternoon. But most of the rain probably holds off until evening (starting between 5 and 10 p.m. from southwest to northeast), keeping much of the daylight hours dry.

The period of heaviest rain is likely to occur between Sunday night after dark and early Memorial Day.

The band of heaviest rainfall, which could be generally up to about 2 inches with locally higher amounts, could be narrow and is thus hard to pinpoint. Below are model rainfall amount forecasts.

The GFS model shows the band of heaviest rain (1 to 3 inches) just west of D.C. and Interstate 95, with lighter amounts to the east …

GFS total rainfall forecast through Monday morning. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

The European model suggests 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area through Monday afternoon, with a tendency for the heaviest rainfall along and east of I-95 …

Rainfall forecast by European model between Sunday and Monday night. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

The NAM model shows lighter amounts for the D.C. area, generally 0.25 to 0.75 inches, with 1 to 3 inches+ totals confined to lower Southern Maryland and parts of eastern Virginia …

NAM total rainfall forecast through Monday afternoon. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

While a chance of showers may linger through the day on Monday, it now seems likely that the steady soaking rain exits the area by mid- to late-morning. So don’t cancel that Memorial Day barbecue quite yet. Although rain probably continues later in the day at the beaches.


source: washington post

2016 Asia summer forecast: Drought to ease in India; La Nina to suppress typhoons in West Pacific

2016 Asia summer forecast: Drought to ease in India; La Nina to suppress typhoons in West Pacific.

This summer, the pattern responsible for extensive drought and heat in southeastern Asia will break down enough to bring relief to some nations. Meanwhile, the tropics will spring to life for a time.
Rainfall from the southwest monsoon and the East Asia monsoon is forecast to be more robust this summer due to the weakening El Niño.

La Niña to develop by late summer

El Niño is defined by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. These sea-surface temperatures cycle from warm to cool, relative to average, over a several-year period. When the sea-surface temperatures in the same area of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than average for a few months, a La Niña pattern has developed.
"El Niño will transition to neutral conditions early this summer, then perhaps toward a weak La Nina during August or September," according to AccuWeather Chief International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. "Because of this and other factors, we expect rainfall to return toward average over a large part of India, Malaysia and Indonesia."
The speed at which the cycle trends toward La Niña will contribute to the amount of rainfall.
"If El Niño conditions linger through much of the summer, average or less-than-average rainfall could still occur," Nicholls said. "Conversely, if La Niña conditions develop more quickly, then rainfall could trend to well above average in some areas."

Rain to ramp up in southeastern Asia, recur in part of Middle East

While the East Asia monsoon contributes to a significant amount of rain annually in southeastern China, the region could be significantly wetter than average.
"Rainfall could be excessive in part of the Yangtze River Valley with the possibility of flooding in agricultural and heavily populated areas," Nicholls said.
Rain will significantly ease drought and heat in portions of India, Malaysia and Indonesia.
"Routine pulses of thunderstorms meandering around the Indian Ocean basin could also produce excessive rainfall and the risk of flooding in parts of India," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty.
In the Middle East, higher-than-average Indian Ocean temperatures, especially in the Arabian Sea, have contributed to localized heavy rainfall since last fall.

In this Nov. 24, 2015 image released by the Saudi Press Agency, cars drive on a flooded street in Al-Qassim Region, west of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Saudi Press Agency via AP)

"We expect this part of the Indian Ocean to slowly cool, relative to normal," Nicholls said. "This might be enough to tone down the number of heavy rain events in the southeastern part of the Arabian Peninsula as the summer progresses."
Until the sea-surface temperature anomaly diminishes, the potential for scattered heavy rainfall will continue over the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula well into the summer.

Stubborn areas of drought may persist

There are likely to be some areas where the rain struggles, despite the diminishing El Niño. With some exceptions, El Niño greatly suppressed rainfall over a large part of southern Asia since last summer.
An area where rainfall could remain significantly below average during the summer includes the central part of the Philippines to Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and southeastern Myanmar.
Much of this area has been experiencing its worst drought in decades. The drought has taken its toll on the water supply, agriculture and economies in the region.
Especially hard hit has been the center of rice production in Asia: the Mekong River Delta.

In this March 28, 2016 photo, Thai workers repair a dried up irrigation canal at Chai Nat province, Thailand. Much of Southeast Asia is suffering its worst drought in 20 or more years. Tens of millions of people in the region are affected by the low level of the Mekong, a rice bowl-sustaining river system that flows into Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

As of early May in India, "the combination of excessive heat and drought has decimated crops, killed livestock and left at least 330 million without enough water for their daily needs," according to the Associated Press.
"Heat and drought go hand in hand," AccuWeather Meteorologist Jim Andrews said. "Both typically occur before before the summer rain arrives, but what has been going on during March and April has been exceptional."
Multiple nations in Southeast Asia experienced their hottest temperatures on record for any day of the year during April.
The list of nations that have experienced all-time record highs include Thailand at 44.6 C (112.3 F), Cambodia at 42.6 C (108.7 F), Laos at 42.3 C (108.1 F) and the Maldives at 34.9 C (94.8 F).
On May 19, 2016, India reached its highest temperature ever recorded when the mercury rose to 51 C (123.8 F) in Rajasthan.
Where the rain develops and becomes more frequent, heat will throttle back.
From much of the balance of Saudi Arabia to the Black and Caspian seas, a drier- and hotter-than-average summer is forecast.
Average to slightly above-average warmth with generally average rainfall is in store from Kazakhstan, northern China, Mongolia, central and Far East Russia and North and South Korea.
Below-normal normal number of typhoons, tropical storms anticipated
In terms of tropical activity, a lower number of tropical storms and typhoons are anticipated, relative to last year and the long-term average.

Accuweather

Last year there were 27 named tropical systems, of which 18 were typhoons and eight became super typhoons.
Despite the lower numbers forecast for the entire year, the summer part of the tropical season could be more active than the fall, in terms of impacts to land areas.
"Prior to the anticipated La Niña and less-favorable conditions for tropical systems this fall, low wind shear and warm waters, relative to average, will favor strengthening and a significant number of tropical systems in the western Pacific for a time this summer," according to AccuWeather Tropical Expert Dan Kottlowski.
The threat of direct impact from a tropical storm or typhoon will shift northward over the western Pacific shoreline as steering winds change the track of prospective systems throughout the summer.
"Areas that could be hit through the middle of the summer include the northern part of the Philippines, Taiwan and China," Nicholls said. "Toward the latter part of the summer and into the fall, the main risk area will shift toward Japan."
Should La Niña fail to develop during the late summer and fall, the number of tropical storms and typhoons could be close to average. Should La Niña develop at a fast pace, the number of tropical systems in the western Pacific could be well below average.
In the Indian Ocean basin, the summer tropical threat will be mainly during the early part of the season, as usual.
"There is a risk of one or more strikes by a tropical cyclone over Bangladesh, northeastern and southern India and northern Myanmar, as well as part of northwestern India and perhaps Oman," Nicholls said.
The threat in the Bay of Bengal is in addition to Cyclone Roanu.
People should not let their guard down, despite lower numbers of tropical storms and typhoons forecast. A single strike by a significant system can define a season through great destruction and loss of life.


source: www.accuweather.com

Severe storms, flash flooding to wallop central US into Memorial Day weekend.

Severe storms, flash flooding to wallop central US into Memorial Day weekend.

Severe weather, including the risk of tornadoes and flash flooding, will continue into Memorial Day weekend.
The combination of warm and humid air in place, combined with storm systems moving out from the Rockies, will create an environment favorable for thunderstorms and severe weather.
The severe threat zone will continue across the Plains on Friday. The risk of severe storms will continue over some of the same areas hit by storms for much of this week.

Severe T-Stroms

AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Lead Meteorologist Phil Warren is concerned that storms will produce large hail and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph as well as some isolated tornadoes.
"The risk of tornadoes will be present with some of the strongest storms," Warren explained.
Large hail will pose a hazard to cars, windows, crops and livestock.
People should stay alert to weather bulletins and seek shelter indoors, preferably in an interior room, below ground or in a storm shelter.
Storms can continue into the overnight hours, creating an increased danger.
An additional hazard to the region will be the ongoing threat of flash flooding.
"Flash flooding will also be a major concern in locations that have already received heavy rainfall from thunderstorms earlier this week," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rathbun.
Locations where individual storms merge into a larger storm complex or train will also be at risk for flash flooding.
The threat for daily showers and thunderstorms, some turning severe, will continue right through Memorial Day weekend.
On Saturday, the potential for severe thunderstorm on a more localized level will extend from central and coastal Texas to the middle part of the Mississippi Valley.
Rounds of severe weather are likely to continue over the Plains states through much of next week.

source: www.accuweather.com

EF4 tornado

EF4 tornado leaves trail of damage across Kansas on Wednesday.

A powerful, wedge tornado moved across north-central Kansas Wednesday evening, leaving a trail of damage in its wake.
"The tornado developed around 6 p.m. CDT near Minneapolis, Kansas," AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Amber McGinnis said.
The tornado tracked near the towns of Solomon, Abilene and Chapman. It remained just to the north of Interstate 70 much of the time before crossing the road near Chapman.

A large, wedge tornado located a few miles northeast of Solomon, Kansas, Wednesday evening. (Photo/@THUNDR1)

"It lifted southeast of Chapman, Kansas, around 8:30 p.m. CDT," McGinnis said.
A damage survey from the National Weather Service in Topeka, Kansas, rated the tornado as an EF4 with estimated peak winds of 180 mph.
The tornado damaged numerous buildings along its path and also overturned cars.
A press release from the Kansas Highway Patrol estimated between 15 and 25 homes were either substantially damaged or destroyed.
At some points during its track, the tornado was estimated to be half a mile wide.
The same storm produced another large tornado to the west of Harveyville, Kansas, around 10:30 p.m. CDT.
No fatalities or injuries were reported from the storm.
Video....

Damage to a home on the southwest side of Chapman, Kansas. The vehicles were where the garage and barn used to be. (Photo/@hilde31)

Building damage and trees debarked on the southwest side of Chapman, Kansas. A camper was also in the barn but no where to be seen. (Photo/@hilde31)

House Destroyed just SW of Chapman.Woman in the house survived here in the basement.

Tornado crossing over Interstate 70 near Chapman, Kansas, on Wednesday evening. (Photo/@JCLafa)

Tornado on the ground across north-central Kansas on Wednesday evening. (Facebook photo/Jake Mulholland with credit to Sarah Symborski)

#KS Highway Petrol

source: www.accuweather.com

Thousands of oil workers evacuated as Alberta wildfire spreads

Thousands of oil workers evacuated as Alberta wildfire spreads.

                         Alberta wildfire

Up to 8,000 oil workers were evacuated from camps north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, Monday after the wildfire that destroyed large parts of the city earlier this month expanded rapidly.
The fire has grown in size significantly this week, rising to 505,000 hectares on Thursday and crossing the Saskatchewan boundary. The Blacksand Executive Lodge, capable of housing 655 workers, was destroyed by fire Tuesday.
Many of the workers were being evacuated for a second time in less than two weeks, having only arrived back in the area days before as the oil companies sought to quickly restart production following the evacuation of 90,000 Fort McMurray residents.
Alberta Premier Rachel Notley unveiled a “conditional timeline” for residents to return to the city Wednesday, saying that this process would begin June 1. The first step will see residents returning on a voluntary basis, before all residents join them June 15. She said that this was dependent upon the fire no longer threatening the city, the hospital being open and able to provide basic health services, 911 service being available and fire and police services operational, all roads being open to traffic and utilities restored, and supplies of potable water and food being provided.
Notley added that schools would not reopen until September. A total of 2,432 buildings were destroyed in the city, and over 500 were severely damaged. A further 10 homes were damaged in an explosion Monday night.
No serious damage has been reported to the region’s tar sands facilities, which are surrounded by large firebreaks and equipped with teams of industrial firefighters.
The catastrophe provoked by the wildfire is a product of the capitalist system’s ruthless pursuit of profit at all costs. Multibillion-dollar windfalls have been obtained by the major oil corporations through the vast expansion of the tar sands operations over recent decades.
Fort McMurray, which exploded from a small town with a population of just 35,000 in 1990 to over 100,000 at the peak of the oil boom in 2014, exemplifies the way in which basic social services and infrastructure were sacrificed to cut costs. While every conceivable measure has been taken to protect the tar sands production facilities, the ruling elite saw the workers as disposable assets. The lack of preparedness for wildfires was exacerbated by the impact of climate change and a strong El Niño effect.
Even as workers were rushed back into the region to restart production, reports indicated how unsafe the Fort McMurray area remains. On Monday morning, the provincial government reported air contamination rates were off the charts, reaching a reading of 38 on a scale that normally runs 1 to 10. It rose even higher, to 51, on Wednesday morning. This prompted an order for all firefighters and other emergency workers in Fort McMurray to wear gas masks, while Alberta Health Services ordered other workers planning to return to the area to help with recovery work not to do so. There are several hundred workers in the city attempting to prepare the hospital for reopening at the end of the month, and others reconnecting electricity and gas supplies.
Scientists are also warning that local water supplies will be contaminated with hazardous materials, and that rain will make the problem worse by washing ash and other debris into the Athabasca River, from where Fort McMurray obtains its water supply.
Many of the oil workers compelled to be frantically evacuated as the fire closed in this week explained they had no option but to return to work, even if conditions were unsafe. Lucy Fitzgerald, a Suncor employee, who like many moved from Canada’s east coast to work in the tar sands, told CBC, “It’s a day-by-day thing right now, and that’s all I can do. It’s either that or go home, and stay home, and I can’t afford to do that right now.”
Others spoke out anonymously about their frustration at the oil corporation’s pursuit of profit, which had seen workers sent into an active emergency zone. “Yeah, without a doubt. They lose so much money a day that that’s all they see,” a contractor told the Globe and Mail .
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rejected from the outset any attempt to provide a “political” explanation for the disaster, sharply criticizing the suggestion by Green Party leader Elizabeth May that climate change may have played a role.
This has won him plaudits in ruling circles, who see the crisis as an ideal opportunity to build public support for pipelines to enable the large corporations to transport oil from Alberta’s tar sands to tidal water. CBC enthused over the “positive media buzz” surrounding Trudeau’s May 13 visit to Fort McMurray and Edmonton, and pollster Bruce Cameron commented that it was refreshing to see discussion about the oil sands that did not concentrate on environmental problems or climate change, but the “human face.” Far from being concerned with the lives of ordinary residents, he laid out what for him was significant about this, stating, “It could have longer term implications in terms of making a human face for the oil sands.”
More information continues to come to light about the utter lack of preparedness at all levels of government, despite repeated warnings about the wildfire risk.
Over 70 percent of the Alberta government’s FireSmart budget, which is supposed to be dispersed to local communities to support fire mitigation measures, has remained unspent since 2014. Of the total funding of $23.6 million received by the Forest Resource Improvement Association of Alberta between 2014 and 2016, only $6.9 million had been allocated. This translates into 71 cents of every dollar remaining unspent.
Even more troubling was the rejection rate for communities who applied for funding. Of the 223 applications sent in by 80 communities from across the province in the past three years, only 113 were approved. Most of those declined because projects were deemed “ineligible.” However, the provincial government continues to insist that local communities must take the lead in wildfire preparedness.
This comes on top of the cuts to provincial wildfire budgets, including the New Democatic Party (NDP) government’s slashing of the contracts for air tankers used to fight fires just three weeks prior to the Fort McMurray evacuation. The move means that as of August 16, Alberta will have no air tanker coverage in place, even though the fire season runs well into October.
At the federal level, persistent warnings have also been ignored. Jim Carr, the Liberals’ natural resources minister, received an explicit warning about the growing wildfire risk in briefing notes last year when he entered office. A 2005 wildfire strategy agreed by the federal and provincial governments is effectively stalled due to lack of funds.
Compared with the vast wealth extracted from the tar sands, the resources made available by the authorities to support the evacuees have been paltry. The Alberta government has paid $1,250 to every adult and $500 to each dependent, while the Red Cross, thanks to over $65 million in donations from across the country, paid out $600 per adult and $300 per dependent.
The Edmonton Emergency Relief Services Society, which is running the main evacuation camp at Northlands, has stated there is a “desperate” need for donations to keep up with demand.
The critical task of distributing the basic necessities of life to thousands of families trying to get by with little financial resources has fallen to volunteers. The society issued a call Tuesday for more to come forward. More than 4,000 have assisted at a makeshift distribution centre set up at an Edmonton mall. “We would never be able to [do] it without the volunteers, they are our legwork and heart of what is going on,” a coordinator told the Edmonton Journal. “We do have to stress enough that we still cannot continue to be able to maintain and help as many evacuees without their ongoing support.”
The cramped conditions in the camps have contributed to the rapid spread of stomach sickness. On Monday, it was reported that 281 evacuees had contracted a gastrointestinal illness, an increase of 138 percent in six days. “It’s very hard to keep it from spreading,” said Joanna Oda, a medical officer with Alberta Health Services. “This is not unexpected. This is what happens when many people are gathered in smaller places.”

source: www.wsws.org

Disasters kill 158 in four months

Disasters kill 158 in four months.

Houses destroyed in May due to Twante canal bank erosion (Photo-EMG

The natural disasters and man-made accidents from January to April this year have killed 158 people and destroyed more than 8,700 homes nationwide, according to the Myanmar Fire Services Department.

Landslides, riverbank erosions and strong winds contributed to 398 disasters and accidents during the months.

Strong winds destroyed two schools, an office, a library, three monasteries and 71 houses in April in Kyangin Township, Ayeyawady Region, in the most recent incident recorded.

The country has now 17 search-and-rescue teams with 333 small squads and a workforce of more than 13,000 for rapid response to disasters.

source:www.elevenmyanmar.com

Predictions of change alongside the aftermath of the recent extreme weather

Predictions of change alongside the aftermath of the recent extreme weather.

Director General of the Department of Meteorology Lalith Chandrapala commented on the weather 

Director General of the Department of Meteorology,Lalith Chandrapala pointed out that the weather condition of the country is now getting back to normal and also during the past 12 to 18 hours, the country, specially the Kelaniya area has not experienced heavy rainfall.
He further added that rainfall can be expected in the north west, Sabaragamuwa, Central and Western provinces due to the impact of the cyclones and the cyclone named Raonu has traveled 1600 km north east from Kankasanthurai and is expected to move to Bangladesh through Chittagong tonight or in the early hours of tomorrow and after it enters into Bangladesh the strength of the cyclone will reduce and then, the impact it has towards Sri Lanka will reduce.
The Department of Irrigation today announced that the severe flood situation is reducing following the reduction of the water levels of the Kelani River.
Catchment areas of many rivers experienced fair weather during the past 24 hours. The Department of Irrigation noted that due this the floods in many areas have reduced.

Water levels of the Kelani river is also reducing gradually. Despite flood waters, there are many who continue to remain in their inundated houses in areas on either side of the Kelani River because of the fear of their belongings being looted and the lack of means to travel to safer ground.
The Sri Lanka Army and the Sri Lanka Navy continue to engage in search operation and missions to provide food relief.
Though people managed to move to safer locations when flood waters hit, caged animals in these areas had to face the brunt of the rising waters. Such a group of animals were released today in this manner.
Areas such as Kaduwela, Hangwella, and Biyagama are still affected by the floods. Kaduwela entry point of the Kadawatha Matara expressway continues to be closed.
SSP Ajith Rohana who is charge of Colombo – North commented on providing security to public property owing to floods.
Another landslide was reported in Aranayake this afternoon when part of the Ambalakanda gaveway. District Secretary of Kegalle, Abeywickreme Wanasooriya said that relief teams were dispatched to the area. This is the third landslide reported in and around the Aranayake area.

The first landslide was experienced in the Siripura area where a large number of people were reported missing. Saama-sara hill experienced a landslide yesterday.

Today’s landslide was reported in the hill which is situated opposite to the Siripura hill and operations in search of those who went missing in the landslide continue

Major General Sudantha Ranasinghe who is in charge of the search operation reported that a body and several limbs were recovered during the search. Prime Minister Ranil wickremesinghe visited the Aranayake area today.

A Presidential task force was established to manage the damages caused by Natural Disasters that occured due to the prevelent inclement weather conditions under the directions of Preisdent Maithripala Sirisena.
Several countries have already come forward to assist Sri Lanka at this time of need.
The first batch of relief material was received from India. Two Naval ships that were sent from Kochi harbour in India consisted of 25 tonnes of goods. The goods include, food items, water, clothes and medicine.

ndian high commissioner to Sri lanka Y.K. Sinha and deputy minister of foreign affairs, Dr. Harsha de Silva were present at the occasion where these goods were handed over to Sri lanka.

Meanwhile India has also sent goods weighing 50 tonnes by air today. A stock of aid from the Japanese government too reached the island yesterday, while Australia has come forward to provide 500,000 dollars to the Sri lanka government in aid.

The ministry of disaster management has announced that 73 deaths were reported during the past few days due to various disaster situations. 127 persons are still missing following the disasters that were reported this week.

Disaster management center said that affected people are temporarily housed at 497 welfare centers while over 93,000 families are still being affected by the weather.

Around 5000 residents living around the Meethotamulla Garbage dump are victimized by different pandemics that are spreading.

What can be witnessed in the other areas that were inundated is mud. However areas surrounding the Meethotamulla garbage dump is submerged in black garbage water. This garbage water has been flowing in this area for the past four days. The Meethotamulla area which was famous for its infamous garbage dump, now has a river of garbage water flowing across it.


sourec: www.newsfirst.lk